This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
The combination of the Fed’s steady rate policy and the administration’s aggressive trade measures has led to a cautious market outlook. Investors are balancing optimism about domestic economic resilience with concerns over potential disruptions from international trade tensions.
Federal Reserve’s Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate.
Fed’s Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration.
Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed’s decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank’s policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments.
Economic Reports today: ECB CPI Expectations and US Core PCE.
Overall, while the U.S. economy continues to exhibit strength, uncertainties stemming from trade policies and geopolitical factors are contributing to a mixed market sentiment.
4H Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8OXEiysy/
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price managed yesterday to create a Bullish CHoCH but again demand failed today which again adds the confluence that the Daily and 4H bearish move is in control and there is a HP that we are going to break the 4H INT Low.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RhDfNHQt/
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹At Swing Extreme Discount
2️⃣
🔹Price managed yesterday with US News and Lagarde Press Conference to create a Bullish BOS.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, where price pulled back to the Bullish Swing Extreme.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish based on the Daily Bearish Continuation, 4H Swing Pullback and the current market sentiment.,# Intraday Analysis on EURUSD for January 31, 2025: A Smart Money Concept Overview
## Key Points
– **Market Sentiment:**
– The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, focusing on stable economic growth and low unemployment.
– Chair Powell emphasizes a cautious outlook with no immediate plans to adjust rates, considering potential economic impacts from new trade policies.
– President Trump criticizes the Fed’s approach and promises to address inflation through energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments.
– Current investor sentiment is mixed due to uncertainties over trade policies despite strong domestic economic indicators.
– **4H Chart Analysis:**
– The market showcases a bullish swing and an intermediate bullish trend (INT) after a break of structure (BOS), indicating potential bullish continuation.
– A healthy pullback is expected as the price initially fails to close above the Weak INT High, prompting a target toward the INT Low.
– Previous bullish change of character (CHoCH) indicates demand control has waned, reinforcing bearish trends in the daily and 4H timeframes.
– **15m Chart Analysis:**
– The analysis features a swing bullish structure transitioning to a bearish INT within an extreme discount zone.
– Following U.S. news and a press conference by Lagarde, a bullish BOS was created, with anticipated price pullbacks toward bullish swing extremes.
– Continuous bearish sentiment is expected, aligning with the daily bearish outlook, 4H swing pullbacks, and prevailing market sentiment.
## Conclusion
The current analysis of the EURUSD reflects a complex interplay of strong domestic economic indicators tempered by geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions. The prevailing mixed market sentiment highlights the cautious approach adopted by the Federal Reserve while President Trump’s aggressive strategy raises additional considerations for traders. As we proceed into the trading day, the expectations set forth from both the 4H and 15m chart analyses indicate a predominance of bearish movement, despite short-term bullish tendencies. Traders should remain vigilant for potential pullbacks while being prepared for the broader bearish continuation.
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Original article: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/zp9uLTzS-EURUSD-31-Jan-2025-W5-Intraday-Analysis-ECB-CPI-US-Core-PCE/
